New Polls Give Jon Ossoff An Edge In Georgia House Runoff

Democrat Jon Ossoff may have the upper hand over Republican Karen Handel in the closely watched runoff to fill the seat for Georgia’s 6th District, according to two newly released surveys.

Ossoff holds a 7-point edge, 51 percent to 44 percent, in a live-caller Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll conducted by Abt Associates and released Friday. Ossoff also holds a 10-point edge in favorability over Handel, the survey finds, and has more crossover appeal, taking 13 percent of the GOP vote to Handel’s 3 percent among the district’s Democrats.

President Donald Trump isn’t popular in the district just 35 percent rate him positively, according to the results but voters were more likely than not to say their choice wasn’t intended as a message to the president. Health care looms larger, with more than 80 percent naming it as a very important or extremely important priority. Just a quarter of voters said they had a favorable impression of the House GOP bill to replace Obamacare.

The AJC results, along with a recent SurveyUSA poll , are among the most positive to date for Ossoff, with most showing a closer race.

A survey released Thursday by WSB-TV and Landmark Communications  gives Ossoff a smaller 3-point edge over Handel, 50 percent to 47 percent a result the pollsters described as too close to call. Several other recent polls have also given Ossoff an edge of between 1 and 3 percentage points. (HuffPost Pollster’s charts don’t include surveys that reach only landline telephones , which make up a significant fraction of polling on the race.)

“It’s still definitely a dead heat,” Landmark pollster Mark Rountree told WSB . “Nothing has changed in the scheme of the whole campaign. Nothing has changed in the sense that this really does come down to getting out the vote.”

Determining who’s actually likely to vote, always an issue for pollsters, is especially challenging in special elections, which often see relatively low turnout.

But the latest survey results, coupled with the current political climate and Ossoff’s record-breaking fundraising, seemingly leave the Democrat in a stronger position. Ossoff’s campaign has raised $23 million in what has become the most expensive U.S. House race to date, far outpacing Handel.

“[A] Handel win would now seem like a coup for Republicans and a huge disappointment for House Democrats,” political analyst Dave Wasserman wrote before the release of the AJC poll.

The runoff is scheduled to be held June 20.

The AJC poll surveyed 745 likely voters between June 5 and June 8, using live interviewers to reach both landlines and cellphones. The WSB-TV poll surveyed 420 likely voters between June 6 and 7, using a mixed automated and digital method.

MORE OF THE LATEST POLLING NEWS:

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‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:

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- Fewer than half of American voters view Trump as the “leader of the free world.” [Quinnipiac ]

- Geoffrey Skelley previews the upcoming Virginia gubernatorial primary. [Sabato’s Crystal Ball ]

- Nate Cohn sees reasons for Democrats to be optimistic, despite their recent losses. [The New York Times ] 

- Jack Brewster offers a skeptical take on polls asking about impeachment. [Time ]

- Dante Chinni shows that Trump’s approval rating is declining in military communities and exurbs. [The Wall Street Journal ]

- Steven Shepard reports on a new turnout model being used by the Democratic Governors Association. [Politico ]

- Daniel Cox and Harmeet Kamboj examine how social contact with the LGBT community has affected Americans’ policy attitudes. [PRRI ]

- Nik DeCosta-Klipa writes on a study that finds most Americans don’t think ESPN has any political bias. [Boston.com ]

- Derek Thompson investigates the disappearance of the summer job. [The Atlantic ]