What Will Happen At the Paris Climate Conference?

Will Paris be a success? Will the agreement at CoP21 ensure global temperature raise stays within the 2 limit? What are the concrete consequences of Paris for my company?

As the CEO of the South Pole Group, a global sustainability solutions provider, I am debating such questions with stakeholders from both the public and private sectors on a daily basis. COP21, the next UN climate summit in Paris, is only a few months away. Therefore, we have decided to roll out our big crystal ball and present you our 10 key outcomes you should (and should not) expect from Paris.

In a nutshell:

• Mitigation commitments by industrialised and developing countries won't come as binding targets. Rather, countries will pledge so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), to be implemented by 2020.
• These pledges per se, also due to their non-binding nature, will fall way short of keeping the climate within the 2 target.
• Much more promising is concrete climate action unfolding in individual countries, as well as private sector commitments.
• In addition, the conference in Paris will provide a deal on Climate Finance contributions by developed countries (e.g. through Green Climate Fund) beyond 2020, as well as an Agreement on Adaptation to climate change and loss & damage.
• Paris is not the end, but only the start to get us #readyfor2020. .

Top 10 outcomes of COP21 Paris:

1. There will be a deal in Paris, but it will be weak. Last year's negotiations in Lima, Peru, already suggested this course: the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) were defined as new commitments under the 2020 agreement in a rather vague and lethargic, largely non-binding and non-enforceable manner.