Taiwan Readies For U.S. Election And Potential Uncertainty Ahead

TAIPEI, Taiwan For years, Taiwan has enjoyed solid bipartisan support in Washington a consensus that has only strengthened as China has increasingly threatened the self-governing island, which it claims as its own territory and has promised to reunify with the mainland.

In recent months, however, Donald Trumps rhetoric has left some experts questioning whether Taiwan could continue to rely on the U.S. if the former president is reelected to the White House, given his wariness of American commitments to foreign partners and his enthusiasm for strongmen like Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Taiwanese officials HuffPost heard from during a weeklong press delegation last week largely struck a diplomatic tone when asked about the upcoming U.S. election. 

Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Franois Chihchung Wu said Taiwan will be closely monitoring the election on Tuesday and expressed measured anxiety about what the outcome will mean for future relations between the two democratic countries.

Of course, we are very concerned by the presidential election of the U.S., because the U.S. is our most important ally, he told the group of visiting international reporters, responding to a question from Brad Dress as The Hill.

Wu added that Taiwans concern boils down to uncertainty and said the island remains hopeful that whoever is elected on Nov. 5 will continue supporting its capital, Taipei. 

Polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in a neck-and-neck race for the Oval Office. The vote comes as observers worry a flashpoint is nearing for bubbling tensions between communist-led China and Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China. 

Since establishing relations with China in 1979, America has maintained a one China policy that recognizes the Beijing government as the sole representative of China and acknowledges but does not endorse its claim to Taiwan. 

Yet even as Washington has not sought formal independence for Taiwan, instead, it has been an unofficial ally and the islands largest weapons supplier. In 2022, Biden vowed to defend Taiwan if China tried to invade. And last week, the U.S. approved the sale of nearly $2 billion worth of arms to Taiwan, including advanced surface-to-air missile defense systems.

Taiwan has been very happy for the support of the Biden administration, Wu said.

[Biden] was very successful to cross a red line imposed by China, he continued. In the past, China always said that if China found any foreign military in Taiwan, it would be considered a declaration of war, but now we have the U.S. Army [Special Forces stationed ] in Taiwan. We also send our soldiers to be trained in the U.S. China can just be angry. The only thing China can show is to be angry. 

Meanwhile, Trump has repeatedly praised Xi, calling him a brilliant guy who controls 1.4 billion people with an iron fist. In recent interviews , Trump has falsely accused Taiwan of stealing the semiconductor industry from the U.S., threatened to impose tariffs on its chips, and argued Taiwan should pay us for defense.

Echoing the approach of other worried American partners who have faced criticism from Trump and seen him praise their rivals, like European leaders, Wu avoided direct criticism of the Republican presidential nominee while trying to position support for his country as in line with Trumps thinking.

For Mr. Trump, he always said that he wants to make America great again, the Taiwanese leader said. From my observation, if Trump abandoned Taiwan, I wonder how he can make America great again, because he would lose the support and credibility of the U.S. in the total Asia-Pacific. 

Wu did swing back at Trumps comment about Taiwan needing to pay for U.S. protection, noting the island already pays for its own defense. If the U.S. or any other country wants to sell Taiwan more advanced weapons, it would be happy to pay for them, he said. 

Senior Taiwanese officials reiterated their countrys longstanding narrative that the U.S. is essential to the region a line of thinking that could appeal to both Harris-style proponents of American alliances and Trump supporters who worry Beijing will reduce American influence in the area.

I personally think that the reason why the Taiwan Strait has been peaceful for many, many years, one of the reasons, is because of deterrence from the U.S., Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Minister Liang Wen-chieh told visiting reporters. As mainland Chinese power has been growing in terms of military and economics, whether or not this kind of deterrence will continue to be effective will have to depend on the determination and the strength of Taiwanese people and, of course, the determination and the power of the U.S.

Liang added that Xi is watching the U.S. closely, and it is key that the U.S. leader is not viewed in Beijing as someone who will back down.

Pressed about how he views Trump in that context, Liang said he has his own opinions but declined to elaborate.

Trump renewed his call for Taiwan to pay for U.S. protection once again casting American ties to foreign countries not as a matter of shared interests and values but as a protection racket and so far less reliable last week on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast. When asked about Trumps comments, a Chinese official implied that Trump could abandon Taiwan if reelected as president. The Taiwanese people know that the United States will always pursue America first and that Taiwan could go from being a pawn to an outcast at any time, Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson for Chinas Taiwan Affairs Office, told state media, according to Newsweek .

Alongside its ongoing efforts to deter military escalation by China in the region, the U.S. has spent tens of billions of dollars in recent years supporting Ukraine in its war of survival against Russia and Israel in wars against militias in the Palestinian territory of Gaza and Lebanon.

Asked if Taiwan is concerned increased U.S. military aid to Ukraine and Israel could mean there is eventually less U.S. support available for the island, Wu argued maintaining peace in the Indo-Pacific remains a top priority for Washington.

We feel that the U.S. is putting more and more resources in the Indo-Pacific, he told HuffPost. They need to pay high attention to the rise of China.

Whatever occurs stateside, Taiwanese officials emphasized they are relying on their own policies as they continue to hope a Chinese invasion can be avoided and a diplomatic Taipei-Beijing solution achieved.

Our position is that we have to show our determination, said Catherine Hsu, director general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Department of International Information Services. We need to be able to defend ourselves before we can ask for any support from outside. That is the reason why we have been further strengthening our national defense. 

While Chinas Xi has repeatedly vowed to  unite China with Taiwan by military force if necessary, Hsu stressed that Taiwan does not see war as imminent or unavoidable.

Our goal is not to have that situation happen, she said. The strategy is that we work with those democracies that share the common concern to prevent the war from happening.

Disclosure: HuffPost traveled to Taipei as part of a press delegation that the Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs organized and paid for.