The British Elections: Managing Shocking Outcomes

The results of the British snap elections of June, 8, 2017, have turned out to be, if anything, a major political fiasco for British Prime Minister Theresa May. Her political fortunes crumbled like a house of cards after what political pundits called an unnecessary political misadventure. The Prime Minister, buoyed by a double digit lead in the opinion polls and an opposition party that seemed to be in disarray, called for a snap election ostensibly to consolidate her Conservative Partys parliamentary majority and strengthen her mandate ahead of the Brexit negotiations with the EU. She had gleefully quipped after invoking article 50 to commence the exit negotiations that the EU Commission President, Jean Claude Junker would soon find out that she was indeed a bloody difficult woman.

A string of miscalculations; the manifesto debacle and the decision to stay away from the live television debate, portrayed her as disconnected with the electorate. The back to back terrorist attacks in Manchester and London during the campaign period and third since she assumed office as Prime Minister dented her campaign slogan - strong and stable and also put her six-year role as Home Secretary under intense public scrutiny. These missteps and a surprise spirited showing by the Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, on the campaign trail, swung the public opinion pendulum in favour of the opposition party and narrowed the polls to a single digit lead just before the elections.

The results as they trickled in were really a disappointment for the Conservative Party. The final results showed a hung parliament, with none of the parties winning enough seats to reach the 325 seats threshold majority margin.

The Unexpected Outcomes

The immediate implication for Prime Minister Theresa May as she struggles to cobble a government is that she finds herself in a weakened political leadership position having failed to obtain the mandate she sought by calling the snap elections. She has been forced, in the circumstance, into an alliance with the Democratic

Unionist Party of Northern Ireland (DUP) to retain her position as Prime Minister. The results also showed that Britain, once again, had returned to the era of two major political parties.

Another unintended outcome of the elections is the doubt, being cast on the leadership of the Conservative Party. Members especially those who lost their seats, including10 Ministers have questioned the wisdom of calling for the snap elections. Political commentators are of the view that Theresa May is in office but not in power. They opine that she might be forced out of office in the next six months. There are already rumblings within the party suggesting that she might be forced to resign her position as Prime Minister. Jeremy Corbyn, has also not ruled out a change to a Labour government.

Impact on Brexit Negotiations

The congratulatory messages to Prime Minister Theresa May from her European counterparts and the EU Commission and the terse indications of their readiness to commence the Brexit negotiations, convey their awareness of the weakened political position of the Prime Minister and the slight chance that the negotiations might not take place as scheduled.

The Brexit negotiations, when it occurs, will be on EU terms. They will seek to limit the access of Britain to the European market and also obtain special immigration status for EU citizens resident in Britain. These are the core and controversial issues of the negotiations. The EU is determined that Britain cannot cherry pick what they want from the negotiation. Besides, the EU would also want to send a strong dissuasive signal to any member wishing to exit the Union.

The declining role of Britain in Europe will also mean a diminished role in global affairs. With the USA and Britain looking inwards, the world now looks expectantly to Germany, France and also China for leadership to drive the international cooperation agenda on issues of peace and security, environment and climate change challenges.

Britain and Africa

The outcomes of the elections on British Africa relations are varied. Some experts predict that with the British exist from the EU and limited access to the lucrative European market, she would be forced to resuscitate her trading partnership with Africa and the Commonwealth. For others, the vision of a global Britain is likened to a reawakening of its past colonial relations with Africa. Those inclined to this point of view believe that Africa must resist another attempt to subject itself to unfavorable trade relations with Britain.

Notwithstanding the merits of these contending viewpoints, I strongly recommend that Africa should welcome the opportunities, as well as, take on the challenges that come with the new trade and economic overtures from Britain when she finally exits the EU. African governments and private sectors should by now see the grand folly in serving, within the global economic chain, only as the sources of primary products and market for finished products from the developed economies.

Besides trade and economic relations, governance, human rights and immigration issues remain high on British -Africa relations. Most observers call for increased British engagement on governance and human rights issues in Africa. They also call for a reevaluation of the nexus linking immigration with terrorism, noting with concern, as investigations have revealed, that the recent terrorist attacks have been perpetrated by home grown terrorist persons/groups and not by immigrants.

The real onus for this migration push away from Africa lies with African governments and not Europe. Africa leaders must show more than the current lip service commitment to uplifting the lives of the teeming African population. Africa must strive to come of age.

Celebratory Note

On a celebratory note and one that, I share with a number of Nigerians, even if it is for self-serving reasons, we welcome the fact that seven of the elected members of the British parliament are of Nigerian heritage. The same celebratory note also goes to Members of Parliament (MP) from other ethnic minority backgrounds. While we recognize that their primary responsibility will be to attend to issues affecting their immediate constituencies and not to advance Nigerian or for that matter African affairs in the British parliament, the fact that they are of African heritage has a nice ring to it.