The Future of Refugee Resettlement in the United States: A Prediction

On September 30, Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) announced that Texas would no longer participate in the federal refugee resettlement program. The decision follows a recently-amended state plan to only allow resettlement to refugees who were fully vetted and did not pose a security concern. However, fears over Syrian refugees entering the United States, which is shared by many state governors, pushed the state to opt out of the federal program. This decision should not surprise officials in Washington who condemned Governor Abbott in November 2015 for acting outside of his legal authority after instructing resettlement organizations to cease reception and services to new refugees. Abbott was one of 30 governors (29 republicans and 1 democrat) throughout the country who objected to the Syrian resettlement project and refused to resettle Syrian refugees. Despite refusal, over 10,000 Syrian refugees were resettled in the United States by the close of this fiscal year (fy).

The Syrian refugee crisis is one of the largest crises, if not the largest, of the modern era. In Jordan, there are nearly 650,000 Syrian refugees registered with the UNHCR and up to 600,000 unregistered refugees living in urban areas and amongst the host-communities. Lebanon presently has seen a 25% increase in population following migrations of more than one million refugees over the border. The unprecedented number of refugees fleeing Syria toward Europe brought the crisis to international attention in mid-late 2015. Stepping outside of the Middle East, the number of refugees and vulnerable populations continues to rise with conflicts in Somalia, Libya, and Burma; persecution in Eritrea; increasing violence in Pakistan and Afghanistan; and broad displacement throughout Africa, Asia, the Middle East (to name a few). This is the context that led to the UN Leaders Conference on Refugees in New York, last week.

On September 30, President Obama announced his plan to increase the US refugee resettlement total to 110,000 refugees for FY 2017. This increase comes after the close of the Obamas Syrian Refugee program that resettled 12,000 Syrians to the United States from Jordan. Previously, the United States received 85,000 refugees in 2016 and 75,000 each year since 2013. The proposed increased resettlement plan is a response to US resettlement operations that were scaled up in Uganda, Tanzania, and Jordan according to the Presidents 2017 Resettlement Proposal to Congress. In 2015, the top three areas where refugees originated were Burma, Iraq, and Somalia.

Inside President Obamas proposal to the congress is a breakdown of the prospective regions of refugee reception including in the proposed resettlement ceiling increase.

These 110,000 refugees are selected on a tier system based upon prioritized classifications: Priority 1, Priority 2, and Priority 3.

Priority 1 allows consideration of refugee claims from persons of any nationality, usually with compelling protection needs, for whom resettlement appears to be the appropriate durable solution. These refugees are identified, referred, or selected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), a U.S. Embassy, and select NGOs and humanitarian actors in areas with a large refugee population.

Priority 2 includes specific groups (within certain nationalities, clans, or ethnic groups; sometimes in specified locations) identified by the Department of State in consultation with various international agencies. There are two distinct types of ways refugees can qualify for priority 2. The first is the open-access model where refugees can be referred according to a preset of designated criteria. Examples include Iraqis with existing ties to the United States and Iranians from religious minorities. The second is predefined group designation model. These are refugees who are identified as a predetermined group who qualify for resettlement under the p-2 classification. These groups include the Congolese in Rwanda and Tanzania, Burmese (and ethnic minorities) from refugee camps in Thailand, Bhutanese in Cambodia, and more.

Priority 3 affords resettlement access to members of designated nationalities who have immediate family members in the United States who initially entered as refugees or were granted asylum. This is the portion of the program that facilitates family-reunification.

The below table shows the proposed priorities and refugee country of origin for 2017.

In 2017, the largest proposed number of refugees will be resettled from the Near East (Middle East) and South Asia where nearly 12 million people are identified as refugees. These 40,000 will be from the following nationalities: Palestinians, Syrians, Afghans, Iraqis, Burmese, Bhutanese, Sri Lankans, and Tibetans. Iraqis have long been resettled to the United States as one of the top two countries of origin (the other are Burmese) since the beginning of the Iraq war. I predict that in 2017, the largest number of refugees will originate from Iraq, Syria, Bhutan, and Burma.

The second largest proposed area of origin is Africa with 35,000 expected to be resettled to the United States- the expected number is 27,000 (according to the White House) . Refugees from Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will be the largest groups admitted following by Eritrea, Sudan, and Ethiopia from the region.

While the increase to 110,000 refugees seems substantial, many communities probably do not realize the presence of existing refugees in their own communities. For many Americans, the political debate surrounding the Syrian resettlement project was the first moment many recognized the programs existence. The increase in political rhetoric surrounding refugees and immigration, more broadly, is influenced by an increasingly intense election season and world focus on the Syria crisis. The immanent rhetoric will likely drive the voter to believe that this increase in refugees means an increased threat of terrorism against Americans. But I strongly argue against this notion.

For more information on the recent presidential proposal on refugees, please see the document here .

For more information on the refugee screening process, see this overview here .