Trump Mulls US Troop Surge in Afghanistan

Americas longest war just entered its 17th year with still no end in sight. Currently, under the Resolute Support Mission (RSM), there are about 8400 US troops in Afghanistan. The other 38 NATO countries contribute the balance of 13300 total military personnel. Afghan National Security Forces took full security responsibility for Afghanistan in January 2015. This occurred simultaneously with the standing down of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission and the establishment of RSM. The mission of the new NATO led RSM is to train, advise and assist the Afghan security forces and institutions.

During a telephone call in December 2016 with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, the newly elected US President Donald Trump promised that he would consider augmenting the US troops in Afghanistan. Although during the presidential elections Afghanistan was absent from any discussion, it is believed that Mr. Trump is a critic of the US effort in Afghanistan. He considers the longest American war to have been a waste of resources. It is unclear how Mr. Trump will reconcile his misgivings about the Afghan situation with a decision to move forward with more US troops and resources. Perhaps the reality on the ground will force his hand.

After 16 years of US and NATO involvement, Afghanistan is not better off in terms of security and efforts to keep the ever-resurgent Taliban at bay. The Afghan conflict proved deadliest for civilians in 2016, according to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan. There were 11,418 civilian causalities including children, a 3% increase over 2015. The United Nations reports that 583,000 people in Afghanistan fled their homes due to conflict in 2016, the highest number of displacements since record keeping started in 2008.

The Taliban occupy more land today than any other time since 2001, according to RSM Commander US Army General Nicholson. U.S. Forces Afghanistan reported that approximately 57.2% of the countrys 407 districts are under Afghan government control or influence as of November 15, 2016, a 6.2% decrease from the 63.4% reported last quarter in late August, and a nearly 15% decrease since November 2015 . The Islamic States outreach and establishment of a beachhead in Afghanistan adds to an already precarious security situation in the country. In recent congressional testimony, Gen. Nicholson characterized the security situation as a stalemate, which is a rather optimistic assessment.

Pakistan continues its unconditional support of the Taliban and other extremist groups against Afghanistan. And now Russia and Iran have increased their involvement in the fray. Their motivation is to make life harder for the US and play a broader role in the region. As Russia has embarked on reviving the cold war, they see the US presence in the central and south central regions of Asia as a threat. The Russians have been in contact with the Taliban, a development which concerns the US commander and the Afghan government. Mr. Trump, curiously, has not yet commented on Russias ever increasing involvement.

In a recent second phone conversation with Mr. Trump, Afghan President Ghani boasted about the progress his government has made. But the facts do not support his claims. The Afghan National Unity Government is as divided as ever with infighting. Its first Vice President Dostum is accused of abusing his office by beating and imprisoning a political rival. The culture of impunity, cronyism and corruption continues unabated. The Afghan rule of law is in shambles, opium production grows each year and economically, the country is far from being self-reliant. An Asia Foundation survey found that in 2016, 29.3% of respondents nationwide say their country is moving in the right direction, down from 36.7% in 2015. This represents the lowest level of optimism recorded since the survey began in 2004.

The US forces and its Afghan militia allies drove out the Taliban in 2001. But they (the Taliban) regrouped and gradually became resurgent against the government and its NATO allies. By 2006 the Taliban were in full insurgency mode necessitating NATO troop increases. By 2010 the number of NATO troops increased to over 130,000 , yet the Taliban were not defeated. Therefore, based on experience, it is unclear how any new US/NATO troop surge would favorably tip the security balance.

Moving forward, the options are limited. Withdrawing from Afghanistan now, as the Taliban want, will result in the fall of the Afghan government. A reduction of aid will also have similar effect as Afghanistan is not able to pay for its security forces and other expenses necessary for governing. Leaving Afghanistan will also deprive the US operational bases from going after terrorist groups. Consequently, the US and its NATO allies will not disengage in the foreseeable future. However, there must be a reciprocity between continued military and financial aid and Afghanistans ability to bring about reforms. A major reason for Talibans advances in the past 15 years is an incompetent, corrupt and inept Afghan government.