What happens to Syrian Refugees in Jordan after the war is over?

In 2016, I walked down the main street of the Za’atari Refugee Camp surrounded by crowds of Syrian refugees coming and going in makeshift shops offering food, household items, and even a few hookah cafes. Life in the Za’atari camp has developed into a temporary community complete with places of worship, an informal economy, education system, and more. Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, nearly 1.4 million Syrian refugees have fled to Jordan according to the 2015 national census. Currently, roughly 16% of these refugees are living in camps. The other 84% are living in urban areas throughout Jordan with the highest concentration in and around the capital of Amman. This sight is reminiscent of the Palestinian refugee crisis that, until now, remains largely unresolved. As the international community and the Kingdom of Jordan seek solutions to the Syrian crisis, many fear that the Syrian refugee community will not return to Syria and choose to remain in Jordan after the conflict ceases. However, this fear is evidence of a gap that is present within political and academic discourse on refugee behavior in the region particularly regarding post-conflict movement intentions of Syrian refugees. Understanding the factors influencing the movement intentions of Syrians in Jordan will provide the Jordanian Government, the United States, and the humanitarian community a foundation for post-conflict policy preparations and long-term resilience project planning in all relevant sectors.

As the Syrian conflict moves into its sixth year, hopes of peace resemble the piles of rubble that were once neighborhoods in Aleppo. The protracted crisis has placed a great burden on both the Syrian refugees in Jordan and the Jordanian community creating a socio-economic burden that has forced the international community to shift from a short-term response strategy to one focusing on long-term sustainable solutions. In 2015, conditions in Jordan deteriorated to the point where nearly 440,000 Syrian refugees faced cuts to critical financial assistance from the World Food Program. Fall of 2015 saw major increases in the number of refugees leaving Jordan and moving to Turkey in transit to Europe or returning to Syria. The migration of Syrian refugees to Europe is understandable upon evaluating the motivations for movement. Increased conflict without any solution on the horizon forced many to consider alternatives for survival. Additionally, the increased media coverage of Syrian refugees fleeing to Europe painted a picture of opportunity and hope for many who saw movement north as the only option. In contrast, it is much more difficult to understand how thousands of refugees would choose to leave a place of safety to face the horrors of the Syrian conflict even is life is difficult. Syrians in Jordan have lacked the opportunity for employment, adequate living conditions, and proper education.

Jordan’s economy has suffered greatly from the increased number of refugees. Previously, financial assistance pledged to the Kingdom by the international community was not fully met forcing the financial burden on the Jordanian community. Under the weight of an economic crisis, Jordan already faces high unemployment rates, inflating prices of livelihood, and a decrease in wages. In 2016, King Abdullah II attended the London Conference where Jordanian officials met with the international community and donors over critical investment and assistance needed for Jordan to sustain its economy and level of assistance to refugees. The results of the London Conference are outlined in the The Jordan Compact .

There is no doubt that the presence of refugees in Jordan has negatively impacted its economy and made life increasingly difficult for its people. The Jordan Compact seeks to provide long-term sustainable development opportunities for Syrian refugees while investing in Jordan’s 2016 Resilience Plan which includes opportunities for both the refugee community and the host communities. One of the stipulations is that Jordan must remove employment restrictions on Syrian refugees. With the intent of providing a workforce capable of rebuilding Syria when the conflict ends, donor countries will provide employment and training for Syrians.

The most basic question that has yet to be addressed is “What are refugees intending to do once the conflict is over?” As simple a question as it is, little information exists on the intentions of refugees. Rather, it seems to be  assumed what refugee behavior will be. Answering this question will greatly impact Jordan’s ability to choose how to move forward in planning assistance and in future resilience projects. Additionally, it will actively aid donors and the international community in project planning and policy planning. International organizations including UNHCR and USAID will have a better picture of what the future holds if the conflict in Syria were to end in the next few years.

Author: Jesse Marks